The Pennsylvania Energy Model (PEM) that accompanies “Rivers” and “Roots” is a way of quantifying the various combinations of inputs and outcomes, which enables us to put numbers to our long-term stories of Pennsylvania’s energy system.

The PEM is based on an energy model developed by the Boston Consulting Group and includes data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Oxford Economics. The model employs a combination of sector demand (i.e. the demand for energy within the state’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors) and power supply data (i.e. the amount of power being generated and the resources used). Further, the model simulates the impacts on baseline sector demand and power supply to project the changes that could occur in Pennsylvania’s energy system based on the drivers exhibited in each scenario. For example, a change in the number of households will directly affect the demand for energy in and beyond the residential sector. Additionally, changing market dynamics and technological advances could also lead to changes in how the state generates electricity. The PEM reflects how these drivers could impact, for example, the amount of power that is generated by a given resource.

See below an example of how the PEM depicts the commonwealth’s energy mix (Figure 1) and sector demand (Figure 2) for “Rivers” and “Roots.” Notice that although the energy consumption totals are the same in each set, Figure 1 details which energy sources are being consumed while Figure 2 breaks down energy consumption by sector. Click on the images below to enlarge.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 2